7月4日，新加坡榮譽國務資政吳作棟先生應清華大學邀請參加第九屆世界和平論壇。吳資政通過視頻模式在世界和平論壇的大會上發言，談到了如何促進各國之間相互了解、增強對彼此的信心和信任，重振區域合作，共同推進亞洲和平及繁榮。
我也在同日參加了該論壇的“供應鏈重組與全球化走向”分組討論，分享了我對各國該如何共同改善全球化，並構建更強健更具彈性的供應鏈的看法。我們應該攜手確保全球貿易原則與時俱進，達成新協議和規定，繼續推進區域經濟一體，化全球化的可持續發展，共同努力建設一個更具韌性、聯系緊密、全球化程度更高的世界。
以下分享新加坡榮譽國務資政吳作棟先生的演講全文。
SPEECH BY ESM GOH CHOK TONG AT THE 9TH WORLD PEACE FORUM, 4 JULY 2021
Theme: Post-Pandemic International Security Cooperation: Preserving and Practicing Multilateralism
Panel: Reinvigorating Regional Cooperation
Speech Title: Prerequisites for a Peaceful and Prosperous Asia
實現亞洲和平與繁榮的必備條件
1 Thank you for inviting me to speak at the 9thWorld Peace Forum (WPF). When I last spoke at the 8th WPF in 2019, I called out the growing trust deficit between China and the US as well as the fraying consensus on free trade and globalisation. These forces are still in play today.
2 Now, we have the COVID-19 pandemic. This black swan underlines the importance of international cooperation. Because no country is an island.
3 I want to focus on the fundamentals needed to reinvigorate Regional Cooperation.
4 Theoretically, it should be easier to cooperate regionally than globally. After all, we live in the same neighbourhood and there are fewer countries to deal with. As the Chinese saying goes, 遠親不如近鄰. A neighbour is better than a relative who lives far away.
5 However, this is not always true. So I would like to add a qualifier, “helpful”. I insert this qualifier because we all know that if neighbours are at loggerheads, faraway friends are better!
6 Asia is a diverse continent of many different ethnicities, languages, religions, cultures and civilisations. And it is still burdened by lingering historical legacies and disputes. So it is to be expected that some countries look to faraway friends to secure themselves.
7 But this does not remove the need for building good neighbourly ties. Hence, the importance of reinvigorating regional cooperation.
8 How? By building understanding, confidence and trust.
9 The most important element in this process is to have a shared goal for all countries in Asia to work towards.
10 My proposed vision is a Peaceful and Prosperous Asia. It is a simple and clear goal. No one should disagree. Although achieving it is far from straightforward, it can be done.
Peace in Asia
11 Let me illustrate with the example of ASEAN. ASEAN was formed about 55 years ago. Five countries – Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Singapore – came together to promote political, economic and social stability in Southeast Asia amid rising tensions in Asia. They were not politically close. You might say they were distant neighbours. Their leaders, Suharto, Tunku Abdul Rahman, Ferdinand Marcos, Thanom Kittikachorn and Lee Kuan Yew had the wisdom to advance their national interests through collective interests. These national leaders had the vision of international statesmen. The same vision motivated ASEAN to expand to 10 member states. All member states are very different from one another in terms of geography, history, political systems, languages, religions and stages of economic development. But they share the same vision of a peaceful and prosperous Southeast Asia.
12 Recent developments in Myanmar are a litmus test for the ASEAN Way. ASEAN needs to act quickly to implement the Five-Point Consensus reached during the ASEAN Leaders’ Meeting. This will be a crucial step to facilitate Myanmar’s return to peace, stability and normalcy.
13 ASEAN Member States have enshrined their principles of cooperation in the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation. Beyond ASEAN, more than 30 other partners have also acceded to the Treaty. These include the US, China, Japan, South Korea, and India. The treaty commits countries to: respect each other’s independence and sovereignty; not interfere in one another’s internal affairs; and settle differences and disputes by peaceful means and in accordance with the international rule of law.
14 To reinvigorate regional cooperation in Asia, I offer three more principles. First, maximise areas of cooperation, and minimise areas of dispute. Where possible, we should try to resolve issues amicably and rationally. Where possible, compromise. Even when resolution is not possible, disagreements and disputes in some areas need not stand in the way of cooperation and collaboration in other areas that are mutually beneficial. Second, prosper thy neighbours, not beggar them. Let’s play a positive-sum game, not a zero-sum game. It is better to cooperate to grow and share the pie equitably than fight over our share of a fixed pie. Third, reflect and learn from history, and not be shackled by it. This is easier said than done as histories shape citizens’ collective memories and sense of national pride. But if we cannot let go of historical wounds and wrongs, and if we can never forgive, we will not be able to move forward.
15 These principles will provide the overarching framework for a peaceful Asia that all stakeholders respect and abide by.
16 Who are these stakeholders? China is the principal protagonist. Napoleon once said, “Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world.” In the 1980s and 1990s, after Deng Xiaoping kick-started China’s approach of reform and opening up, the key question within the international community was, “When will China rise?” After China’s accession to the WTO and explosive growth, the question evolved to, “How will China rise?” Then-President Hu Jintao assured the world of a “peaceful rise”. Lee Kuan Yew pointed out to Zheng Bijian, former Central Party School Executive Vice President , that “any rise is something that is startling”. Indeed, Lee Kuan Yew was right. China’s rise has startled and disconcerted the US. We should heed Graham Allison’s warning of the Thucydides Trap. Today, the question is, “Now that China has risen, what does it mean for my country and for the world? Will China play a positive-sum game?”
17 China holds the key to Asia’s future and to reinvigorating regional cooperation. In 2003, at the first ASEAN-China Summit, I observed to then-Premier Wen Jiabao that China was like an elephant entering a swimming pool where there were other smaller animals. No matter how gentle the elephant was, it still needed to be careful of its every move, because it might, even unintentionally, step on the toes of the other animals. Two decades on, the elephant is much bigger and still growing, but the size of the pool is still the same.
18 The principles I shared earlier on regional cooperation apply to all countries. But in the world of realpolitik, the behaviour of the larger and more powerful countries determines the peace and prosperity of Asia.
19 I have been to China many times since my first visit in 1971. I have had the good fortune of meeting all the top Chinese leaders, from Deng Xiaoping to Xi Jinping. I have positive impressions and good vibes of China. I believe that China is focused on uplifting its people through economic growth, rather than seeking hegemony in Asia or challenging the US for global dominance. I am convinced that China’s growth is positive for Asia and the world.
20 But there are people who fear that China may become a less than gentle elephant. Accurately or inaccurately, critics have drawn attention to China’s “wolf warrior diplomacy”. This term shapes people’s perceptions of an increasingly muscular and aggressive China. While I understand why China needs to stand up firmly for its interests, how China conducts its diplomacy does shape how others view China.
21 In May, President Xi Jinping urged Politburo members to portray an image of a “credible, lovable, and respectable” China. President Xi’s words are welcomed. The world will no doubt be watching China’s actions closely to see what will change and what will not change.
22 We cannot have real regional cooperation if China does not have the confidence and trust of its neighbours. Achieving this requires more than a change in the tone, style and language of public communications.
Prosperity in Asia
23 Let me now turn to prosperity, and the three features of a prosperous Asia.
24 First, a prosperous Asia is interconnectedthrough the free flow of goods, services and investments, within Asia and beyond. In the near term, our top priority should be to keep supply chains intact. Trade, especially in essential supplies, can then continue to flow unimpeded. Cooperation on the digital economy is also key. Countries should jointly develop the interoperable frameworks needed for an open and integrated global digital economy.
25 Most importantly, we should press on with economic integration in the region through multilateral trade agreements. Last November, 15 Asia-Pacific nations, including China and Singapore, signed the landmark Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, or RCEP, despite challenging circumstances. The RCEP boosts confidence in regional trade and investment and opens up new opportunities for our businesses and peoples. This is timely as we move ahead to secure our region’s recovery from the disruptive economic impact of COVID-19.
26 I encourage China to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, or CPTPP. Joining the CPTPP will signal China’s intent to abide by higher standards of free trade and economic integration. It will have a positive impact on Asia’s prosperity.
27 The second feature of a prosperous Asia is a Green Asia. As countries around the world work to recover from COVID-19, Asia must build back cleaner and greener from the pandemic and realise our joint commitments to the Paris Agreement goals.
28 Third, a prosperous Asia is innovative and inclusive. It is teeming with new ideas to improve the lives of its peoples. It joins hands to ensure that economic development and regional cooperation lift all boats.
29 To make all these ideas a reality, we need the appropriate fora for Asia’s leaders to come together for substantive discussion and collaboration.
30 Both the East Asia Summit and ASEAN Plus Three Summit can play this role. They are established and inclusive multilateral platforms. But first, leaders must step up to the plate and set the agenda for cooperation. Not only as national leaders, but also as international statesmen. To propose a common vision for Asia. To tackle regional challenges together. To initiate win-win collaborations. To bring all on board with ideas for a peaceful and prosperous Asia.
31 How can the World Peace Forum contribute towards building a peaceful and prosperous Asia? This is my suggestion. Many countries in Asia have their own annual forums and conferences that bring together top minds to discuss important regional issues. They can multiply the reach of these messages and ideas several folds if, once every two or three years, they get together to organise a joint multinational forum. This is a collaboration amongst a consortium of think tanks across Asia to promote a common vision of peace and prosperity. It will be a concrete example of reinvigorating regional cooperation. The World Peace Forum can pilot this with a small group of 4 or 5 other think tanks in the region. Think of this as a Track 2 channel which explores new ideas for regional cooperation, especially to address longer-term challenges such as green growth. Focus on quality of participation rather than quantity of attendance. The outcomes of the discussions must be such that the leaders and peoples of Asia will take notice. Hopefully, some of these ideas will be taken up in multilateral platforms like the East Asia Summit and ASEAN Plus Three Summit, and be translated into reality.
A Peaceful and Prosperous Asia
32 Let me conclude. I grew up in an Asia that was neither peaceful nor prosperous. Eight months after I was born, bombs were dropped on Singapore. I am grateful that we now live in a region that enjoys relative peace and moderate prosperity. But I still worry about bombs being dropped once again if relations between neighbours go wrong in the future. Hence, our work to advance regional cooperation is never done.
33 This can be the Asian century of peace and prosperity, if first, leaders in Asia are international statesmen who look beyond their national interests; leaders who see that regional cooperation consolidates peace and advances prosperity; leaders who understand that the benefits accruing from cooperation are more than if they were to go it alone. Second, our leaders agree on a shared vision for Asia and a set of common core principles to abide by. Third, countries in the region come up with new and substantive ideas and programmes to collaborate on.
34 Asia faces many severe challenges, including COVID-19, geopolitical rivalries and macroeconomic risks. Now, more than ever, is the time to reinvigorate regional cooperation. Only by doing so can we secure a better future for Asia. Only by doing so can we enjoy sustained peace and prosperity.
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1. 感謝主辦方邀請我出席第九屆世界和平論壇。我在2019年的第八屆世界和平論壇發言時，就指出中國和美國之間的信任赤字正逐漸擴大，以及世界各國對自由貿易和全球化的共識也逐漸出現裂痕。這兩個現象至今依然存在。
2. 如今，我們也遭受2019冠狀病毒疾病的沖擊。這起“黑天鵝”事件凸顯了國際合作的重要性，因爲沒有一個國家能閉關自守。
3. 在此，我想要著重討論重振區域合作所需的根本原則。
4. 按理說，區域合作應該比全球合作來得容易。畢竟，我們都生活在同一個地區，需要打交道的國家也比較少。俗話說得好：遠親不如近鄰。
5. 然而事實並非總是如此。因此，我想在“近鄰”之前補充一個要素，那就是“有助益的”近鄰。因爲我們都知道，如果鄰國之間勢如水火，那就還比不上遠方的朋友！
6. 亞洲國家非常多元化，不論在種族、語言、宗教、文化和曆史文明方面都截然不同。時至今日，亞洲仍受到一些曆史遺留下來的問題和爭端所困擾。因此，一些國家選擇依靠遠方的朋友，以維護國家安全，是意料中事。
7. 盡管如此，我們還是需要和鄰國建立友好的關系。因此，重振區域合作更顯得重要。
8. 要做到這點，就得促進各國之間相互了解、增強對彼此的信心和信任。9. 在這個過程中，最重要的元素是所有亞洲國家都必須攜手，朝同一個目標邁進。
10. 我所提議的願景是一個和平與繁榮的亞洲。這個願景簡單明確，我相信大家不會有異議。要實現這個目標雖然並非易事，但它是可行的。
亞洲的和平
11. 我以亞細安爲例來說明這一點。亞細安大約在55年前成立，最初由印度尼西亞、馬來西亞、菲律賓、泰國和新加坡五個國家組成。當時，盡管亞洲局勢日益緊張，這五個國家還是決定攜手合作，促進東南亞的政治、經濟和社會穩定。它們之間的政治關系並不緊密，若說它們關系猶如遠鄰，並不爲過。這些成員國的領導人，即蘇哈托、東姑阿都拉曼、馬科斯、他侬•吉滴卡宗和李光耀，都具備了高超的政治智慧。他們通過爭取亞細安的共同利益，來推進各自國家的利益。這幾位國家領袖，其實都具有國際政治家的遠見卓識。相同的願景促使亞細安逐漸擴大到10個成員國。所有成員國在地理、曆史、政治制度、語言、宗教和經濟發展程度等方面都截然不同。但它們都擁有共同的願景，那就是建立和平與繁榮的東南亞。
12. 緬甸局勢的近期發展，對“亞細安之道”形成嚴峻考驗。亞細安需要迅速采取行動，落實亞細安特別峰會期間所達成的五點共識。這將是協助緬甸恢複和平穩定和常態的關鍵步驟。
13. 亞細安成員國已在《東南亞友好合作條約》中，確立亞細安的合作原則。除了亞細安的10個成員國之外，目前有超過30個夥伴國也加入了這項條約。這些國家包括美國、中國、日本、韓國和印度。這項條約要求各國遵循以下原則：尊重彼此的獨立和主權；不幹涉彼此的內政；以及以和平的方式，並根據國際法規，解決分歧和爭端。
14. 爲了重振亞洲的區域合作，我想提出另外三個原則。首先，擴大合作，減少糾紛。我們應該盡可能以友好和理性的態度解決分歧，盡可能相互妥協。即使無法解決，我們也不應該讓彼此間的糾紛阻礙我們在其他互惠互利的領域中尋求攜手合作的契機。第二，共享繁榮，而不是以鄰爲壑。讓我們進行合作博弈，而不是零和遊戲。各國攜手合作，把經濟利益的大餅做大，然後公平地分配給各方，比爭奪有限的利益更理想。第三，反思曆史，從中學習，而不受其束縛。這當然知易行難，畢竟曆史塑造了人民的共同記憶，以及對國家的自豪感。不過，如果我們無法放下曆史遺留下來的傷痕與包袱，也不願意冰釋前嫌，我們將無法前進。
15. 這些原則會構成一個所有利益攸關方都尊重並遵守的總體框架，以促進亞洲的和平。
16. 這些利益攸關方當中，中國扮演了最主要的角色。拿破侖曾說過：“讓中國沉睡吧，當這頭睡獅醒來時，世界將會爲之顫動。”在20世紀80至90年代期間，鄧小平先生實施了中國的改革開放政策之後，國際社會主要關注的問題是：中國什麽時候會崛起？隨後，中國正式加入世界貿易組織，經曆了爆炸式的增長，各國關注的焦點就變成了“中國會如何崛起？”時任中國國家主席胡錦濤向全世界保證，中國會“和平崛起”。當時，李光耀先生就對中共中央黨校前常務副校長鄭必堅提到：“任何崛起都是令人感到震驚的事情”。李光耀先生說對了，中國的崛起震驚了美國，讓它感到不安。我們應該聽取格雷厄姆·艾利森（Graham Allison）提出有關“修昔底德陷阱”（ Thucydides Trap ）的警示。如今，大家關注的問題則是：中國現在崛起了，這對我的國家，以及對全世界來說，意味著什麽？中國會不會采取合作博弈的模式？
17. 中國可說是亞洲未來發展，和重振區域合作的關鍵。我曾在2003年的第一屆亞細安-中國峰會上和時任中國國務院總理溫家寶說過，中國就像一頭巨象，正要踏入泳池，而泳池內已經有其他體型較小的動物。無論巨象多麽溫和，它仍須要格外留意自己的一舉一動，因爲它有可能，甚至會無意間，踩著其他動物。二十年後，這頭巨象的體型變大了，而且還在長大，泳池的面積卻沒有改變。
18. 我之前提到的有關區域合作原則，適用于每個國家。只是，在現實政治的國際格局中，一些較大和勢力較強的國家的舉止，往往會決定亞洲的和平與繁榮。
19. 自1971年起，我曾多次訪華。我也有幸和多名中國最高領導人會晤，包括從鄧小平先生至習近平主席等多位重要領導人。我對中國持有良好和正面的印象。我相信中國會致力于通過自身的經濟發展來改善人民的生活條件，而不會在亞洲尋求稱霸，或挑戰美國在國際舞台上的主導角色。我堅信，中國的經濟增長對亞洲，乃至全世界，都是有利的。
20. 但是，也有人擔心中國這頭“溫和的大象”將不再那麽溫和了。無論正確與否，這些批評者已引起了外界對中國“戰狼外交”的關注，這個標簽也必然會促使人們産生對中國在外交上更爲強勢的印象。我雖然能理解中國必須堅定維護自身利益，但中國的外交姿態確實會影響其他國家對它的看法。
21. 今年五月，習近平主席向中共中央政治局委員強調，中國應該努力塑造“可信、可愛、可敬”的國際形象。習主席的話值得我們歡迎。毫無疑問，世界將密切地關注中國的行爲，並留意中國的任何改變。
22. 要實現真正的區域合作，前提是中國必須獲得鄰國的信心和信任。然而，要做到這點，單靠改變對外宣傳溝通的基調、風格和語言，是不足夠的。
亞洲的繁榮
23. 接下來，我將討論繁榮的亞洲所必須具備的三大特點。
24. 首先，亞洲必須在貨物、服務以及投資方面，對內對外都保持互聯互通。短期內，我們的首要任務應該是維持供應鏈正常運行，才能確保貿易物流通暢無阻，尤其是必需品。在數碼經濟上展開合作也是關鍵。世界各國應該共同制定具有互通性的數碼治理框架與准則，以便推動全球數碼經濟的開放及一體化。
25. 最重要的是，我們應該通過多邊貿易協定，持續推動區域經濟一體化。去年11月，15個亞太國家，包括中國和新加坡，克服重重挑戰，正式簽署了具有標志性的《區域全面經濟夥伴關系協定》(RCEP)。這項協定提振了對亞太區域貿易與投資的信心，也爲我們的企業和人民創造更多機會。我們正試圖促進本區域經濟複蘇，緩解冠病疫情所帶來的經濟沖擊，因此這項協定來得正是時候。
26. 我鼓勵中國加入 《跨太平洋夥伴全面進展協定》(CPTPP)。 中國的加入將向世界發出信號，表示中國願意參與更高水平的自由貿易和經濟一體化進程。這對亞洲的繁榮將帶來正面的效益。
27. 其次，一個繁榮的亞洲也是綠色的亞洲。在世界各國努力從冠病疫情中恢複之際，亞洲必須以更清潔、更環保的方式帶動經濟複蘇，並落實我們對《巴黎協定》目標所作出的共同承諾。
28. 第三，一個繁榮昌盛的亞洲，不但創新，更具有包容性。各國不斷想出新點子，改善人民的生活。各國也會攜手同心，通過經濟發展和區域合作，讓所有人民都能享受到經濟繁榮的果實。
29. 要實現這些個構想，我們需要適當的論壇，讓亞洲領導人齊聚一堂，進行實質性的討論與合作。
30. 東亞峰會以及亞細安加三峰會都可以扮演這個角色。它們都是重要而具有包容性的多邊平台。但首先，領導人必須果斷行動，爲區域合作制定議程。他們不僅要以國家領導人的身份，更要以國際政治家的身份這麽做。爲亞洲提出共同願景、一起克服本區域所面臨的挑戰、帶頭提倡雙贏的合作項目，以打造和平與繁榮的亞洲爲目標，帶著所有人民一同前進。
31. 世界和平論壇如何能夠爲打造和平繁榮的亞洲做出貢獻？以下是我的建議: 許多亞洲國家都各自舉辦年度論壇及會議，彙集頂級專才討論重要的區域問題。這些論壇和會議所産生的信息和構想，如果通過每兩年或三年舉辦一次聯合跨國論壇加以傳達，就能傳達給多上好幾倍的人們。這可以是亞洲多個智囊團的合作項目，旨在促進和平與繁榮的共同願景，也會是重振區域合作的實例。世界和平論壇可以同本區域的四、五個智囊團一起試行這個項目。這個項目可以視爲非官方的討論渠道，爲區域合作探討新點子，特別是在應對較長期挑戰方面，例如綠色增長。主辦方也應該更注重討論的質量，而不是參與的人數。討論的成果，必須引起亞洲領導人和人民的注意。我希望部分討論成果可以在東亞峰會和亞細安加三峰會等多邊平台上獲得進一步討論，並加以實現。
和平與繁榮的亞洲
32. 讓我做個總結。我生長在一個既不和平，也不繁榮的亞洲。我出世的八個月後，新加坡就遭炸彈轟炸。我很慶幸，我們現在生活在一個相對和平與繁榮的地區。不過，我還是會擔心，萬一鄰國之間關系惡化，我們可能會再次被戰火蹂躏。因此，推動區域合作，是一項永不停歇的工作。
33. 本世紀可以是亞洲和平與繁榮的世紀，但前提是：第一，亞洲領導人必須具備國際政治家的高瞻遠矚，能超越自身國家利益，明白區域合作能鞏固和平，促進繁榮；更了解到展開合作，能比單獨行動帶來更大的利益。第二，我們的領導人必須就亞洲的共同願景和一套共同核心原則達成共識。第三，區域各國都提出實質的新點子和方案，供大家展開合作。
34. 亞洲面臨許多嚴峻挑戰，包括冠病、地緣政治所造成的競爭，以及宏觀經濟風險。我們現在比以往任何時候都更需要重振區域合作，只有這樣，我們才能爲亞洲爭取更美好的未來，並享有持續的和平與繁榮。