開幕和主旨演講
博鳌亞洲論壇副理事長周小川
博鳌亞洲論壇副理事長周小川在開幕致辭中表示,疫情使人與人之間的社交距離拉大,但越是困難時期,越需要人與人、國與國、地區與地區之間的理解與幫扶,越需要彙聚全球智慧,尋找解決方案。疫情之下經濟政策選擇的關鍵在于爲社會提供兜底保障和減輕債務負擔,可以考慮一些“暫停性政策”安排。國際組織救助應特別關注受沖擊嚴重的發展中和新興市場國家。各國命運相連,只有克服恐懼,共同戰鬥,才能獲得勝利。亞洲經濟體具有很大韌性,疫情後將會持續發揮作爲全球經濟增長引擎的作用。
BFA Vice Chairman Dr. Zhou Xiaochuan pointed out that, the pandemic has widened the social distance among people, yet during the hard times, mutual understanding and helps from each other, between countries and across regions are more imperative, to bring together wisdom and to find solutions. The key to economic policies is to provide basic social security and mitigate the debt burden. Some kind of “put-on-hold” policy arrangements can be considered. The destiny of all countries is bounded together. As long as the international community overcomes fear and fight together, we will eventually win the battle. Asian economies have strong resilience. They will continue to play the role of a global growth engine during and after the pandemic.
開幕和主旨演講
博鳌亞洲論壇秘書長李保東
博鳌亞洲論壇秘書長李保東表示,疫情突然爆發,全球面臨大蕭條以來最嚴重的經濟衰退,並可能給社會和政治局勢帶來嚴重影響。在此關鍵時刻,更需要團結一致和全球領導力,贊賞二十國集團特別峰會爲各國團結抗擊疫情的努力和積極作用。加強合作與對話是博鳌亞洲論壇的使命,各利益方應共同攜手、應對挑戰。互相指責、政治化反而會分裂國際社會,破壞國際努力。
BFA secretary General Mr. Li Baodong stated that, the outbreak of the coronavirus led to the worst economic recession since the Great Depression, and caused severe influences on society and politics. This crucial moment calls for solidarity and global leadership. Mr. Li applauded the G20 Special Summit for its efforts and positive impacts on the global fight against the coronavirus. The Boao Forum for Asia endeavors to promote cooperation and dialogue. All stakeholders should join hands and face the challenges together. Finger pointing and politicalization would divide the global community and put the international joint efforts in jeopardy.
總結發言
博鳌亞洲論壇理事、新加坡原副總理黃根成
博鳌亞洲論壇理事、新加坡原副總理黃根成在會議總結中表示,此次全球疫情對于國際社會來說是一次警鍾,我們要發展經濟,同時也要保證安全,應該遏制民族主義。絕不能夠關起大門向內轉,全球一致行動至關重要。只有這樣才能控制疫情,並在疫情之後實現經濟複蘇。必須確保開放、可持續的全球供應鏈,使得貨物和服務能自由流通。要抵制放棄全球化的勢頭,全球需努力強化合作。開放世界在疫情之後會變得更強,更有韌性。
BFA Director and former Deputy Prime Minister of Singapore Mr. Wong Kan Seng stressed that, this global pandemic is a wake up for the international community to act in concert to fight this common enemy and to build a safer world. It is very important not to shut our door and turn inwards. The solution is not protectionism and nationalism. We need to keep an open and sustainable global supply chain, ensuring free trade of goods and services. We shall resist the urge to stop globalization and strengthen global cooperation. By staying open and connected we can emerge from this crisis stronger and more resilient than before.
報告發布
報告寫作團隊介紹了《亞洲經濟展望與一體化進程2020報告》的主要結論。
The writing team introduced the main findings of the “Asian Economic Outlook and Integration Progress 2020” Report.
報告認爲,新冠肺炎疫情持續時間、貿易摩擦延續、金融風險特別是債務風險累積、發達經濟體負利率擴散、地緣政治沖突、社會穩定情況以及原油價格走向等均是亞洲經濟增長的重要影響因素。預計2020年亞洲經濟零增長,未來數年將在中低速軌道內前行,但亞洲經濟總體韌性很強。亞洲區內經濟一體化進程仍在向前推進。貿易一體化進一步提升;生産一體化尚未受到貿易摩擦顯著影響,世界三大工廠競爭優勢分布大體穩定;亞洲資金更加青睐亞洲內部市場。若是能在亞洲範圍內乃至世界範圍內建立統一的衛生應對機制,能更好地對抗疫情或類似公共衛生事件對各國的沖擊。
The report writing team then introduced the main findings of the “Asian Economic Outlook and Integration Progress 2020” Report. According to the Report, the duration of the pandemic, continuing trade frictions, accumulation of financial risks especially debt risks, spreading of negative interest rates of developed economies, geo-political conflicts, social stability conditions, and crude oil price tends would be important determinants of Asian economic development in the future years. It is expected that the Asian economy will experience zero growth in the year 2020, and be on the medium-low growth track for the years to come. However, the Asian economy is resilient with an ongoing trend of integration. Intra-regional integration of trade has been on the rise, the production reliance within the region has not been severely affected by trade conflicts, the distribution of competitive advantages of the three world factories remains relatively stable, and Asian investors are more inclined to invest within the region. If equipped with a cross-border disease control mechanism within and out of Asia, we can better tackle the challenges of the coronavirus and other public health crises.
國際組織關于亞洲經濟前景和挑戰的發⾔
張濤 國際貨幣基⾦組織副總裁
張濤表示,在全球經濟收縮的情況下,2020年亞洲經濟預計零增長,這是過去60年裏從未有過的。各國需實施一整套反應迅速、靈活的政策來支持和保護醫務人員,以及爲人員、就業和産業提供直接支持。爲應對外部動蕩,可以考慮建立雙邊和多邊互換安排、尋求多邊機構資金支持以及讓資本流動措施發揮作。
Mr. ZHANG indicated that, amid the global economic contraction, 2020 may witnesses a zero growth in Asia, which has not been seen in the last 60 years. A full arsenal of policies, responsive and nimble, is needed to support and protect the healthcare sector and to protect people, jobs, and industries directly. Bilateral and multilateral swap lines, financial support from multilateral institutions and a role for capital flow measures to cope with external sector volatility can be considered.
國際組織關于亞洲經濟前景和挑戰的發⾔
莫雷諾 泛美開發銀行行長
莫雷諾(Luis Alberto Moreno)指出,新冠病毒正在開始大舉進入南半球,由于封鎖、石油價格暴跌和金融市場動蕩,拉美今年的GDP可能收縮2%-5.5%。他強調,貿易是亞洲與拉丁美洲之間牢固聯系的基礎,但需要多樣化和價值增值。通過降低雙邊關稅和其他物流成本,亞洲對拉丁美洲的出口可增長20%-40%。
Mr. Luis Alberto Moreno warned that the coronavirus is starting to move in a much stronger way into the southern hemisphere and Latin America may suffer economic contraction around 2-5.5% of GDP, due to lockdowns, oil price crash and financial market turmoil. He stressed that trade is the anchor of strong ties between Asia and Latin America, but needs diversification and value change. By reducing bilateral tariffs and other logistics costs, Asian exports to Latin America could grow by 20-40 percent.
國際組織關于亞洲經濟前景和挑戰的發⾔
東盟與中日韓宏觀經濟研究辦公室主任土井俊範
東盟與中日韓宏觀經濟研究辦公室主任土井俊範預計2020年東盟和中日韓經濟增速大幅放緩至0.2%,在中國和制造業部門帶動下將出現逐步的U型複蘇。
Mr. Toshinori Doi, Director of the AMRO expected growth in ASEAN+3 economies to slow sharply to 0.2 percent this year with a gradual U-shaped recovery led by China and the manufacturing sector.
國際組織關于亞洲經濟前景和挑戰的發⾔
中亞區域經濟合作學院院長Syed Shakeel Shah
中亞區域經濟合作學院院長Syed Shakeel Shah表示,在應對疫情方面中亞經濟體的財政狀況相對強勁,但需要應對大宗商品價格暴跌和僑彙下降的不利影響。
Mr. Syed Shakeel Shah, CAREC Institute illustrated that the central Asian economies are in a relatively strong fiscal position to tackle with the Pandemic, but are facing adverse impact of the crash of the commodities prices and declining remittances.
國際組織關于亞洲經濟前景和挑戰的發⾔
沙特阿拉伯費薩爾國王研究和伊斯蘭研究中心亞洲研究部主任
Mohammed Al-Sudairi
沙特阿拉伯費薩爾國王研究和伊斯蘭研究中心亞洲研究部主任Mohammed Al-Sudairi談到海合會國家因受到疫情和全球油氣價格崩塌的雙重打擊,經濟將總體收縮。
Mr. Mohammed Al-Sudairi, Head of Asian Studies Unit, KFCRIS mentioned that the GCC countries are severely hit by both the coronavirus and the global price collapse in oil and gas.
國際組織關于亞洲經濟前景和挑戰的發⾔
博鳌亞洲論壇研究院政策協調人阿赫塔爾
博鳌亞洲論壇研究院政策協調人阿赫塔爾提到,由于人口衆多,人口密度很高,南亞面臨著抗疫的艱巨任務,全球合作至爲關鍵。
Madam Shamshad Akhtar, BFA Policy Sherpa mentioned South Asia is facing the daunting task of combating the virus due to a large population and high population density. global cooperation is very critical.
駐華⼤使關于應對疫情的區域和全球合作的講話
歐盟駐華大使郁白
歐盟駐華大使郁白(Nicolas Chapuis)表示,當務之急,我們應戰勝病毒,保護人民的生命健康。中國和歐洲多國取得的積極進展讓我們有理由充分相信,我們將在未來幾個月內打贏這場戰爭。
EU Ambassador Nicolas Chapuis said that our immediate focus should be to defeat the virus to preserve the health and lives of our populations. The progress noticed in China and in several European countries indicate a positive trend and we have good reasons to believe that we will win this battle over the coming months.
駐華⼤使關于應對疫情的區域和全球合作的講話
泰國大使Arthayudh Srisamoot
泰國大使Arthayudh Srisamoot重點介紹了泰國政府抗擊疫情而采取的一些措施和合作行動。他表示,自疫情爆發以來,亞太地區在促進合作應對疫情不利影響方面一直非常積極。
Thailand Ambassador Arthayudh Srisamoot highlighted the Thai government’s policy measures in response to COVID-19, and commented that the Asia-Pacific region has been very active in terms of fostering cooperation to counter the adverse effects of the virus since the outbreak of COVID-19.
駐華⼤使關于應對疫情的區域和全球合作的講話
阿爾及利亞大使Ahcene Boukhelfa
阿爾及利亞大使Ahcene Boukhelfa表示,非洲已受到新冠疫情帶來的經濟副作用的嚴重影響。國際社會必須做出巨大努力來緩解這種狀況,這不僅對非洲,乃至對整個全球經濟的健康都是至關重要的。
Algerian Ambassador Ahcene Boukhelfa said that Africa has already been severely impacted by the economic side-effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. A major international effort to alleviate this situation is essential for the health not just of Africa, but of the whole global economy.
駐華⼤使關于應對疫情的區域和全球合作的講話
土庫曼斯坦大使Parakhat Durdyev
土庫曼斯坦大使Parakhat Durdyev指出,土庫曼斯坦總統別爾德穆哈梅多夫閣下在參加不結盟運動聯絡小組在線高級別會議時強調,國際社會聯合抗疫應以團結爲指導,各國應對措施可能有差異,但都應以長期戰略爲基礎。
Turkmen Ambassador Parakhat Hommadovich Durdyev said that,President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov participated at the online high level meeting of the Contact Group of the Non-Alignment Movement and emphasized that consolidated international efforts should be guided by solidarity, yet may have variations in the national response, but rest on universal long term strategy.
國際組織機構、博鳌論壇會員及合作機構代表發⾔
聯合國難民署代表達納帕拉
聯合國難民署代表達納帕拉強調,國際社會抗疫努力應照顧到不平等和弱勢群體面臨的問題,尤其是低收入國家的難民和流離失所者。聯合國難民署致力于同各國政府和人道主義援助夥伴合作,確保應對疫情計劃把難民包括在內。我們需要更多資金支持確保人類共渡難關。
Representative of the UNHCR in China Sivanka Dhanapala stressed that, the economic consequence of COVID-19 highlighted the importance of ensuring that responses also address issues of inequality and vulnerability. Worst affected will be those living on the margins, refugees, displaced persons in these low and middle income countries. UNHCR works with government and humanitarian partners to make sure refugees are included in response plans to COVID-19.We need additional financial support now to help ensure people can survive these challenging times.
國際組織機構、博鳌論壇會員及合作機構代表發⾔
歐洲咨詢聯盟-安博思中國區CEO
MATTIA MARINO
歐洲咨詢聯盟-安博思中國區CEO MATTIA MARINO對于意大利公司在中國和亞洲的發展前景表達了信心。未來市場的增長將主要在亞洲,這次疫情將成爲加速亞洲崛起的催化劑。
Mr. Mattia Marino, China CEO of the European House-Ambrosetti expressed confidence on the outlook of Italian companies towards China and Asia. Future market growth will be mostly in Asia, and COVID19 has act as a catalyst in accelerating the uprising of Asia.
國際組織機構、博鳌論壇會員及合作機構代表發⾔
中金公司董事總經理黃海洲
中金公司董事總經理黃海洲認爲,從市場的政策反應而言,全球金融市場複蘇和運作得相當好。但是,本輪經濟複蘇可能需要很長時間。
Mr. Huang Haizhou, Managing Director of CICC held the view that, in light of the policy responses, the global financial market recovered and functioned fairly well. But the economic recovery this round could take a very long time.
國際組織機構、博鳌論壇會員及合作機構代表發⾔
京東集團副總裁沈建光
京東集團副總裁沈建光表示,中國的數字經濟不僅在抗擊疫情中而且在經濟複蘇中都將實現非常顯著的增長。
Mr. Shen Jianguang, Vice President of JD.com & Chief Economist of JD Digits said that the digital economy in China will have a very significant growth not only in fighting the pandemic but also in the recovery of the economy.
立足亞洲 面向世界
傳遞論壇最新動態 促進亞洲深度合作
全球重要對話的傳達者 亞洲共同發展的瞭望者