2018-03-20 11:00
林吉祥在5年前選定振林山為攻下柔州的據點，這次行動黨則選中亞依淡。不同的是，巫統在上屆大選臨陣把馬華的傳統選區振林山交由柔州大臣阿都干尼上陣，希望擊敗林吉祥丶瓦解行動黨的攻勢，而這次行動黨是委派柔州主席劉鎮東到亞依淡，挑戰馬華署理總會長魏家祥。上演「王對王」的戲肉，再加上選舉語言，最容易挑起圍觀民眾的情緒。
繼505大選，行動黨再一次把柔佛列為前線州，這次行動規模更大丶動員更多大將。柔州激烈的選情將牽動全國華裔選民的情緒，甚至是投票取向。
行動黨在柔佛的布局跟505大選有相似之處。
林吉祥在5年前選定振林山為攻下柔州的據點，這次行動黨則選中亞依淡。不同的是，巫統在上屆大選臨陣把馬華的傳統選區振林山交由柔州大臣阿都干尼上陣，希望擊敗林吉祥丶瓦解行動黨的攻勢，而這次行動黨是委派柔州主席劉鎮東到亞依淡，挑戰馬華署理總會長魏家祥。上演「王對王」的戲肉，再加上選舉語言，最容易挑起圍觀民眾的情緒。
其次，率領年輕領袖「攻城掠地」。林吉祥在上屆大選率劉鎮東丶張念群等「揮軍南下」，結果攻陷振林山丶居鑾及古來，現在雪州百樂鎮州議員楊美盈將到前線州助陣，盛傳蒲種國會議員哥賓星丶雪州議會議長楊巧雙也會南下，顯示陣容比上屆大選更強大。
林吉祥已經放話，行動黨領袖是沒有「舒適區」，必須做好承擔風險的準備。這也就是說，為了達到改朝換代的目標，該黨已有破釜沉舟的決心；林吉祥也可能走出振林山，挑戰馬華的「安全區」。
為甚麽行動黨再把目標放在柔佛，不是其他州？柔州是國陣的堡壘，也是馬華的「根據地」，馬華的7個國會議席有4個在柔佛，即亞依淡丶丹絨比艾丶地不佬及拉美士，希望聯盟要拿下中央政權，必須先攻克柔佛，奪取政權是一席都不能少，因此行動黨將派出知名的候選人上陣這4個選區，所以才會有「剿滅」馬華的說法。
劉鎮東披露，希盟力爭在大馬半島贏得100席，包括在柔佛及吉打州各贏多10席，就能組成穩定政府。在柔州26個國會議席中，反對黨在上屆只贏5席，有很大的擴展空間。
柔州戰役就好像「丹絨戰役」，一波接一波。
雖然林吉祥當年攻下檳州的計劃失敗，但在308大選「開花結果」。
林吉祥在上屆大選前解釋為何把柔佛列為前線州，他認為，308大選的政治海嘯還未到達頂峰，反風從北吹到森州就停止了。他率領年輕領袖南征，就是要讓未「完成任務」的海嘯，達到顛峰，覆蓋半島中南部，衝擊巫統和馬華的堡壘。
現在加上慕尤丁在柔北的勢力，以及馬哈迪在馬來甘榜的影響力，比起5年前伊斯蘭黨在柔佛的軟弱實力，行動黨似乎更有本錢掀起南部的海嘯。
行動黨和慕尤丁主攻柔佛，馬哈迪及兒子慕克力全力攻打吉打，南北呼應，而前巫統副主席沙菲益阿達在沙巴叫陣，將讓國陣首尾不能兼顧。
77歲的林吉祥思維仍然敏捷，在沙場上贏多輸少，但也有大意的時候。1995年大選，行動黨展開「丹絨三役」，林吉祥的競選造型是「半人鐵警」，強調自己是有實權的首長，卻引起反彈，在丹絨武雅慘敗給許子根，行動黨輸到只剩1席；成績揭曉後，林吉祥宣布退出檳州政壇。
選民的心態很微妙，當他們同情弱者時，就會教訓挑戰者；當大家心有怨氣，就會口耳相傳，投反對票。所以，政黨領袖必須懂得拿捏，馬華希望湧現同情票，而行動黨將全力催谷改朝換代的氣勢，成敗在於選民的一念之間。
行動黨要拿下馬華在柔佛的4個國席，還必須看馬來票，儘管具備各方面的條件，但不要忘記在關鍵時刻，巫統的人盯人策略。
因為健康因素，這次大選很可能是林吉祥的最後一屆，數十年的鬥爭，就看這最後一搏。
Read in English on MySinchew: Lim Kit Siang’s swan song
文章來源：
星洲日報／風起波生‧作者：林瑞源‧《星洲日報》副執行總編輯·2018.03.20
Lim Kit Siang’s swan song
2018 will very likely see LKS going down to the battlefield for the last time. Sure enough he wants a perfect conclusion to sum up his decades-old political struggle in this country. Photo courtesy: Sin Chew Daily
By LIM SUE GOAN
Sin Chew Daily
After the 2013 general elections, DAP once again puts the southern state of Johor as its frontlne state, and on an expanded scale!
The intensity of the battles in Johor will drag along with them the sentiments of Chinese voters nationwide, even their voting trends.
There are resemblances in DAP’s Johor strategy to the 2013 election.
Lim Kit Siang picked Gelang Patah as DAP’s base for a large scale onslaught in Johor five years ago. It is Ayer Hitam this time round.
However, there is one difference. In 2013, Umno made the last-minute move to take over the MCA seat by fielding the former MB Abdul Ghani Othman in hope of defeating LKS and crippling DAP’s advances in the state.
This time, DAP sends its state chairman Liew Chin Tong to Ayer Hitam to challenge MCA deputy president Wee Ka Siong.
Additionally, LKS led a contingent of young aggressive contenders in the likes of Liew Chin Tong and Teo Nie Ching to head down to Johor in 2013, and successfully took down Gelang Patah, Kulang and Kulai.
And now, Damansara Utama state assemblywoman Yeo Bee Yin will be sent to the battleground state and it is rumored that Puchong MP Gobind Singh Deo and Selangor state assembly speaker Hannah Yeoh will also head south.
LKS has vowed that there are no safe zones for DAP leaders and that they must be prepared to take the risks, meaning the party is determined to take the plunge in order to unseat the BN administration in Putrajaya. LKS himself may likely walk out of Gelang Patah to take on MCA in the latter’s safe zone.
Why is DAP putting all the eggs in Johor and not other states? Johor has always been BN’s fortress, MCA’s base. Four of MCA’s seven parliamentary seat won are in Johor, namely Ayer Hitam, Tanjung Piai, Tebrau and Labis.
To take down BN at federal level, Pakatan Harapan must first capture Johor. Consequently, DAP is expected to field its strongest candidates in these four constituencies, giving the public an impression that the party is indeed trying to flush out MCA.
Liew Chin Tong says PH aims to win at least 100 seats in Peninsular Malaysia, including ten additional seats each in Johor and Kedah, in order to form a strong government. Among the 26 parliamentary seats in Johor, the opposition only managed five in the last election. So, there is still a lot of room for improvement.
LKS explained why he picked Johor as the battleground state in the last election. He said the political tsunami had yet to reach a peak in the 2008 election, stretching from the north all the way until only Negeri Sembilan, and he wanted to complete the unfinished mission to sweep the tsunami across the central and southern parts of the peninsula in a bid to uproot Umno and MCA from their strongholds.
This, coupled with the influences of Muhyiddin Yassin in northern parts of Johor, and Mahathir’s in the rural areas, should put DAP in a better position to wage the southern tsunami this time.
With DAP and Muhyiddin focusing on the battles in Johor, Mahathir and his son Mukhriz taking care of Kedah, and former Umno VP Shafie Apdal taking on Sabah, BN will have a hard time fighting the challengers.
There have been occasions of miscalculation, though, for the 77-year-old DAP supremo, as exemplified by the Tanjung 3 campaign in 1995 where he suffered a humiliating defeat to Koh Tsu Koon in Tanjung Bungah.
The voters’ attitudes are highly unpredictable. When they feel they should show some sympathy for the underdog, they will think of teaching the challengers a lesson. And when everyone is unhappy with the status quo, they will vote against it!
MCA today is pinning its hopes on the sympathy votes, and whether DAP’s ubah strategy will work depends very much on which way the voters’ emotions swing to.
DAP also needs to take into account the substantial Malay votes in capturing MCA’s four parliamentary seats in Johor. Even if everything is in place, lest we forget Umno is there mapping out the counter strategy.
Given his health conditions, 2018 will likely see LKS going down to the battlefield for the last time. Sure enough he wants a perfect conclusion to sum up his decades-old political struggle in this country.