年輕和城市選民不積極投票,特朗普的鄉區中下階層支持者卻踴躍投票。選舉塵埃落定,全美各地數以萬計的民眾走上街頭抗議,反對特朗普當選。不只是美國人承擔低素質總統領導國家的苦果,國際社會也受到牽連。
想不到大選何時舉行還沒有眉目,大家就先爭議該不該投廢票的問題,投廢票運動(#undirosak)應從是否可行及民主角度來分析。
投廢票運動其中一名發起人接受星洲日報訪問時說,如果該運動發酵,朝野政黨的選票很大可能都不會超過50%,無論誰執政都是「弱勢政府」,這正是他們希望看見的局面,即把權利歸還於選民,真正做到選民當家。
無可否認,投廢票是選民的權利之一,目前也沒有法律管制,但是想要靠鼓吹投廢票來達到上述訴求,在現有的政治環境下過於理想主義。
首先,國陣和希盟各有支持票,響應投廢票的還只是小眾,所以任何一方都不會理會該運動的訴求,況且該運動缺乏組織和策略。
其次,政治人物最注重的是自身的利益,他們都精於計算,不會為了更大的板塊,遷就小的板塊。
令人擔心的是,號召投廢票或者不投票最終可能自食其果,讓國家陷入動盪中。巫統元老東姑拉沙里披露,不少人認為大選後可能出現「懸峙國會」。如果朝野的議席接近,那麼就會出現挖角、跳槽的局面,誰還會去聽取投廢票選民的心聲,爭奪政權最重要。
雖然很多人預測國陣可以繼續執政,但是局勢對國陣越來越不利,因為物價上漲,加上國行升息,未來幾個月市場情緒將惡化,同時馬哈迪擅長於鼓動人心,時間對希盟有利。
如果朝野陣營勢力相近,那麼投廢票運動所造成的影響可能是負面的,就好像英國脫歐公投及美國總統選舉。
2016年6月23日舉行的英國脫歐公投,支持脫歐的老人踴躍投票,很多年輕人卻放棄投票。
「脫歐」派獲勝,年輕人覺得被「出賣」,因此大批年輕人上街示威。也有不滿公投結果的民眾在網路發起連署,要求二次公投,短短數天有320萬人連署,但大局已定,為時已晚。
2016年11月的美國大選,總統選舉的投票率只有56.9%,高達43.1%的選民未參與投票,僅四分之一選民投選特朗普。
在投票前,許多美國人認為兩位候選人是瘋子與騙子在「比爛」,甚至說了「死都比投票好」、「寧可流星撞地球,也不讓希拉蕊特朗普當選」、 「為狗投票」等話語,突顯對大選的厭惡。
年輕和城市選民不積極投票,特朗普的鄉區中下階層支持者卻踴躍投票。選舉塵埃落定,全美各地數以萬計的民眾走上街頭抗議,反對特朗普當選。不只是美國人承擔低素質總統領導國家的苦果,國際社會也受到牽連。
所以,一些國家立法強制投票值得仿效,因為不能讓不投票、投廢票來左右選舉結果,卻選出缺乏堅強民意基礎的領袖。
民主並非從天而降,爭取民主的過程也非常艱辛,因此不應輕言放棄。只有參與才能促進民主,放棄將干擾民主的進程,就好像今天美國的情況。在大馬自我放棄者不在少數,有約380萬名大馬公民還未登記為選民,大多數是年輕人。上屆大選,民聯在全國國會議席的總得票是562萬3984票,而國陣的得票是523萬7699票,差距是38萬6285票,所以這些人若參與投票,絕對可以在下屆大選成為「造王者」。
很多人為因素,讓我們錯失了改革的機會,造成國家今天還陷入種族政治的泥淖中。
任何民主和選舉制度都有弱點,如果情緒摻雜其中,這些弱點將能夠左右選舉,帶來災難性後果,可能需要5年或更久的時間,才能糾正鑄成的大錯。
The price of spoilt votes
2018-01-30 11:58
It may be too late crying over spilled milk if we give up our constitutional right to vote.
By LIM SUE GOAN
Sin Chew Daily
Before the election date is even announced, there have been talks whether we should cast spolit votes in the election. The #undirosak campaign should be deliberated from the democratic point of view.
One of the campaigners told Sin Chew Daily if the campaign gains momentum, it is very likely that neither of the two major political camps will bag more than 50% of votes, and a “weak government” will ensue whoever takes helm at Putrajaya.
This is exactly what these people have wanted: to eventually return the power to the people so that they can decide how the government is to be run.
We cannot deny that casting spoilt votes is itself a right of voters, and we currently do not have any law to stop people from doing so. Nevertheless, attempting to achieve this end by rallying the public to cast spoilt votes is overly idealistic in our existing political environment.
First and foremost, both BN and PH have their own die-hard fans, and only a small fraction of undecided voters may echo the calls to cast spoilt votes. Consequently, either side will hardly heed the campaign which itself lacks systematic organization and strategy.
Secondly, politicians are most concerned about their own interests, and will not bother to please a small group of people just to expand their own influences.
What is worrying is that the spoilt vote campaign would likely backfire in the end, sinking the country further into commotion.
Umno veteran Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah has cautioned that many people see a hung parliament as a possibility after GE14. If the number of seats won by the two major rival camps are too close, ship jumping may become rife. No one will take the people’s voices seriously, as seizing of power is way more important.
While many still believe BN will cling on to power after the election, the current situation appears to be increasingly unfavorable to the ruling coalition due to skyrocketing goods prices and worsening market sentiment on the back of higher interest rates. Moreover, Mahathir is an expert in fanning public emotion, and the timing could be on PH’s side.
If the votes won by both sides are very, very close, impact from the spoilt vote campaign could be detrimental, like in the UK Brexit vote and US presidential election.
In the June 23, 2016 referendum, Brexit supporters came out in droves to vote while young Britons stayed out.
The final outcome swang in favor of the Brexit side, and young people swore that they had been “betrayed”.
Consequently, massive numbers of youngsters took to the street while 3.2 million people unhappy with the results signed an online petition for a second referendum.
But, it’s too late!
In the November 2016 US presidential election, only 56.9% of voters cast their votes. Some 43.1% of voters stayed away from polling stations, and only a quarter of eligible voters actually voted for Donald Trump.
Before the election, Americans generally felt they had two rotten apples to pick, a madman and a swindler, and they didn’t want to see either candidate make it to the White House.
Young urban voters were unmotivated, but Trump’s rural working class supporters came out in droves to vote.
After the results were released, Americans protested across the country against Trump’s election.
Americans were not the only people to take the brunt of the election of a substandard leader, the entire global community was dragged along with it.
As such, some countries have laws to make it compulsory for registered voters to vote because they don’t want the final election results to be dictated by absenteeism or spoilt votes, and for a leader lacking strong popular backing to be elected.
Democracy is a long-winding journey that will only thrive with persistence and active participation by all. Giving up the constitutional right to vote will disrupt the democratic process, like what has happened in the United States.
There is quite a substantial number of Malaysians who are not prepared to exercise their rights to vote. Around 3.8 million eligible Malaysian citizens have yet to register as voters, mostly young people.
During the last general election, Pakatan Rakyat won 5,623,984 popular votes against BN’s 5,237,699 at a difference of 386,285 votes. If these people come out and vote this time, they can absolutely be the “kingmakers” of the election.
We have missed some precious opportunities to reform this country owing to a number of human factors. As a result, the country has been plunged into the quagmire of endless racist politics.
There are bound to be weaknesses in any democratic or electoral system, but if we allow emotions to take charge, they could very much alter the final outcome and bring disastrous consequences. We may need another five years or much longer to undo our mistake.
文章來源:
星洲日報/風起波生·作者:林瑞源·《星洲日報》副執行總編輯·2018.01.30