中國發生的新型冠狀病毒疫情,“將有助于加速工作崗位回流北美,其中可能部分回流美國,部分則流向墨西哥。”
“I think it will help to accelerate the return of jobs to North America, some to [the] US, probably some to Mexico as well,” Ross said.
《紐約時報》報道截圖
他在《紐約時報》上發表專欄文章直言,真心爲美國捏把汗。
克魯格曼表示,羅斯愚蠢的評論(boneheaded remarks)足以讓人懷疑,美國政府這幫人能否應對好任何一場不是自己造成的危機。瑪利亞飓風就因爲美國政府處理不當,卷走幾千條人命。
美國商務部長威爾伯·羅斯
“這個商務部長剛剛挂掉‘微生物經濟學’課!”克魯格曼(Paul Krugman)毫不客氣地諷刺羅斯。作爲諾貝爾經濟學獎獲得者、著名經濟學家,克魯格曼在文中給這些大放厥詞的美國高層好好補了一堂“微生物經濟學課”。
羅斯思維病症的根源:不懂21世紀經濟學。
克魯格曼在文中寫道,羅斯認爲美國將從疫情中獲益,除非是壓根不懂21世紀的全球經濟,才會這麽想。
Now, you might think that this implies an upside to China’s troubles, that disrupting China’s vast manufacturing sector would offer opportunities to producers in other countries, including the United States. That is, you might think this if you knew nothing about 21st-century economics.
第一講:全球價值鏈
克魯格曼認爲,羅斯和他的同僚們顯然並不明白,現代制造業不同于幾代人以前的制造業,不再是不同國家工業部門間的“直接競爭”。克魯格曼進一步解釋說,如今我們生活在全球價值鏈的世界裏,任何國家進口的大部分都不是消費品,而是其自身生産過程中所使用的“中間商品”。
What Ross and his colleagues apparently still don’t understand that modern manufacturing isn’t like manufacturing a couple of generations ago, when different countries’ industrial sectors were engaged in fairly straightforward head-to-head competition.
These days we live in a world of global value chains, in which much of what any given nation imports consists not of consumer goods but of “intermediate” goods that it uses as part of its own production process.
在這樣一個世界裏,任何幹擾進口的東西,無論是關稅還是病毒,都會增加生産成本,從而影響制造業。事實上,美聯儲近期一份報告顯示,特朗普政府的關稅政策集中在中間商品上,已經減少了制造業的産出和就業。
In such a world, anything that disrupts imports — whether it’s tariffs or a virus — raises production costs, and as a result if anything hurts manufacturing.
Indeed, a recent study by the Federal Reserve found that Trump’s tariffs, which were concentrated on intermediate goods, have reduced, not increased, manufacturing output and employment.
第二講:疫情對美國經濟的影響,堪稱貿易戰極端版
克魯格曼強調,疫情對美國經濟的影響比貿易戰更甚。
盡管2019年整體經濟增長還算不錯(雖然不是太好),但制造業正在處于衰退進程中。(貿易戰帶來的不確定性可能解釋了這樣一種現象,爲什麽大幅削減公司稅,商業投資仍然在下降。)
…… while overall economic growth in 2019 was decent (not great), manufacturing is in a recession. (And the uncertainty created by the trade war may explain why business investment is down despite a huge cut in corporate taxes.)
我們可以這樣說,如果這種病毒嚴重破壞了中國的生産,它對美國經濟的影響堪稱“貿易戰的極端版本”。
What we can say is that if the virus seriously disrupts Chinese production, its impact on the US economy will be like an extreme version of Trump’s trade war…
結論
在克魯格曼羅斯眼裏,羅斯認爲中國的疫情將“加速就業機會回流美國”,而這種觀點只能證明兩件事:第一,難怪《紐約時報》專欄作家蓋爾·柯林斯的讀者會將羅斯評爲特朗普政府最差的成員;第二,難怪特朗普的貿易戰打得如此失敗。
Sure enough, Wilbur Ross, … to declare that he “didn’t want to talk about a victory lap,” but that the coronavirus “will help to accelerate the return of jobs to North America.” By saying this, he demonstrated a couple of things: (1) why Gail Collins’s readers voted him Trump’s worst cabinet member, and (2) why Trump’s trade war has been such a failure.
給挂科的羅斯補上一堂公共衛生學課
羅斯的冷血論調惹怒的不僅僅是美國經濟學家,還有公共衛生學家。
據《華盛頓郵報》報道稱,多位公共衛生學家均迅速出手怒批,羅斯的發言不僅不准確而且還危險。從新型冠狀病毒疫情爆發以來,公共衛生部門的工作者努力防止虛假信息在社交媒體上的傳播,從陰謀論到騙人的靈丹妙藥。各個平台都在打壓關乎健康的危險假信息的傳播
But public health experts were quick to criticize Ross’s comments as inaccurate and dangerous, saying such messaging could suppress reports of new infections.
Meanwhile, health officials are up against the spread of false information on social media, from conspiracy theories to deceitful claims of magical cures. And Facebook, Google and Twitter are scrambling to crack down on the spread of dangerous health disinformation.
專家學者希望羅斯停止不負責任的論調。
要我看,羅斯已經不是人了。一有點錢,就沒人性了,這簡直是精神疾病。
這樣的言論太可惡了!如果只是私下說說已經夠糟糕了,他竟然還公開說?簡直就是個魔鬼!
編輯:王瑜 胡雨濛來源:中國日報新媒體