四小龍的崛起和衰落 [美國網評]

四小龍的崛起和衰落

在驚人的增長之後，四小龍都在減速和老齡化。丹斯坦博克稱，在沒有重大政策變化的情況下，他們正面臨相對的停滯。在《四小龍》(1992著)中，美國學者傅高義認爲，四小龍——台灣、韓國、香港和新加坡——是新興的工業化經濟體，它們模仿日本的出口導向型增長模式走向繁榮……

The Rise and Decline of Four Little Dragons

四小龍的崛起和衰落After a stunning growth performance, all four dragons are slowing and aging. In the absence of drastic policy changes, they are facing relative stagnation, says Dan Steinbock.

在驚人的增長之後，四小龍都在減速和老齡化。丹斯坦博克稱，在沒有重大政策變化的情況下，他們正面臨相對的停滯。

In The Four Little Dragons (1992), U.S. academic Ezra Vogel argued that the four little dragons—Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore—were the newly-industrialized economies, which had followed Japan’s export-led growth model to prosperity. Unlike major advanced economies, which established their position in a century or two, the four dragons made their mark in just a few decades.

在《四小龍》(1992著)中，美國學者傅高義認爲，四小龍——台灣、韓國、香港和新加坡——是新興的工業化經濟體，它們模仿日本的出口導向型增長模式走向繁榮。與主要發達經濟體不同的是，四小龍在短短幾十年內就取得了成功。

Today, the dragons’ world looks very different. There is a common denominator behind Hong Kong’s economic and political malaise, Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen’s effort to lean on the Trump White House, South Korea’s mass demonstrations to impeach President Park Geun-hye, and Singapore’s Future Committee’s attempt to accelerate economic growth.

今天，四小龍的世界看起來非常不同。香港的經濟和政治問題背後有一個共同的特征，而台灣“總統”蔡英文努力依靠特朗普的白宮，韓國發生了大規模示威活動彈劾總統樸槿惠，新加坡的未來委員會努力試圖加速經濟增長。

Political friction usually follows aging and slowing. That’s the common denominator.

政治摩擦通常伴隨著老齡化和經濟放緩。通常都是如此。

Rise of dragons

龍之崛起

Some half a century ago, the four dragons began extraordinary rapid industrialization starting with Hong Kong’s textile industry in the 60s, followed by export-oriented industrialization in Lee Kuan Yew’s Singapore, modernization and export expansion in Kuomintang’s Taiwan, and Park Chung-hee’s South Korea. From the early 1960s to the 90s, the dragons enjoyed high growth rates. In the process, they leapt “From the Third World to the First” within one generation, as Lee later put it.

大約半個世紀之前，四小龍以香港紡織業在60年代的發展爲開端開始了非凡的快速工業化，隨後是李光耀管理的新加坡的出口導向型工業化、國民黨台灣的現代化和出口擴張，以及樸正熙的韓國。從20世紀60年代初到90年代，四小龍的增長率都很高。在這一過程中，就像李光耀後來說的那樣，他們在一代人的時間裏“從第三世界進入到第一世界”。

In 1960, Hong Kong, the first dragon to begin the catch-up, still led in average living standards; it was only 20 percent behind Japan, followed by Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea. But Hong Kong remained more than 30 percent behind U.S. In the weakest dragon, South Korea, living standards were barely 10 percent of those in America.

在1960年，第一條開始追趕之路的龍-香港，在平均生活水平上依然領先;其生活水平僅僅比日本低20%，其次是新加坡、台灣和韓國。但香港的生活水平仍然比美國低超過30%，而最弱的韓國生活水平僅爲美國的10%。

As the toughest phase of industrialization was achieved by 1980, little dragons were still led by Hong Kong. Although trade-friction between the U.S. and Japan was about to dominate headlines, living standards in Hong Kong were now only 25 percent behind those in Japan, but still 45 percent behind those in U.S.

在1980年實現工業化的最艱難階段，四小龍仍由香港領導。盡管美國和日本之間的貿易摩擦即將成爲頭條新聞，但香港的生活水平在當時僅落後于日本25%，但仍落後于美國45%。

Usually, most economies’ internal engines decelerate after industrialization associated high growth. However, the four dragons were in the right place in the right time and made the right growth choices. As China – the ultimate dragon – began its economic reforms and opening-up policies, the little dragons’ went overdrive that supported their growth another three decades.

通常情況下，大多數經濟體的內部增長引擎在與工業化相關的高速增長過後會減速。然而，四小龍在正確的時間出現在了正確的位置，並做出了正確的增長選擇。隨著中國——最終的龍——開始其經濟改革和開放政策，又支撐了四小龍繼續高速發展了另一個30年。

Today, living standards in all dragons, except for South Korea, are relatively higher than in Japan, which has been overwhelmed by economic stagnation. Intriguingly, living standards in Singapore are now on average 35 percent higher than those in America; which Hong Kong has caught up with as well.

今天，除韓國外，四小龍的另外三個的生活水平都比日本高，日本已經被經濟停滯所淹沒。有趣的是，新加坡的平均生活水平現在比美國高35%;香港也趕上來了。

But easy catch-up growth is behind.

但容易追趕的增長已經過去了。

Shaky short-term prospects

晦暗不明的短期前景

In 2017, Singapore hopes growth of 2-3 percent, although analysts expect it to stay below 2 percent. Despite a strong last quarter in 2016, it is coping with economic malaise. Trade outlook is uncertain, due to new protectionism and regional tensions. Like Hong Kong, Singapore must also cope with the Fed’s hikes amid a tight labor market and softening property sector. It is seeking new growth not just in China and emerging Asia but via economic integration with Malaysia and Riau.

在2017年，新加坡希望增長2- 3%，然而分析師預計它的增長速度將保持在2%以下。盡管在2016年的最後一個季度表現強勁，但它仍在應對經濟低迷的狀況。由于新的貿易保護主義和地區緊張局勢，貿易前景並不確定。與香港一樣，新加坡也必須應對美聯儲在勞動力市場緊縮和房地産市場疲軟的情況下的加息。它不僅在中國和亞洲新興市場尋求新的增長，而且還通過與馬來西亞和廖內省的經濟整合來謀求增長。

Despite improved prospects, Hong Kong ‘ growth is about 2.0 percent. Its future is overshadowed by political angst. Even more than Singapore, it is exposed to global liquidity swings, US trade protectionism and China’s rebalancing in the region. But unlike Singapore, Hong Kong has missed or continues to shun pro-growth integration opportunities. Failures in leadership are illustrated by the misconduct of former chief executive Donald Tsang and the weakness of his successor CY Leung.

盡管前景有所改善，香港的經濟增長率只有約2.0%。政治焦慮籠罩著它的未來。甚至比新加坡形勢更嚴峻，它也暴露在全球流動性波動、美國貿易保護主義和中國在該地區的再平衡中。但與新加坡不同的是，香港已經錯過或繼續回避了能夠支持增長的整合機會。前任行政長官曾蔭權的不當行爲以及繼任者梁振英的軟弱，說明了其領導層的失敗。

South Korea’s growth rate has been cut to 2.8 percent, but economic momentum has moderated. Neither foreign trade, which is constrained by international environment, nor domestic demand, which suffers from indebted households, has been adequate to support strong growth. While rising inflation may generate a hike by the Bank of Korea, Seoul must cope with Chinese deceleration and U.S. protectionism and Washington could also target it for alleged currency manipulation.

韓國的經濟增長率已降至2.8%，但經濟勢頭有所緩和。無論是受到國際環境制約的對外貿易，還是來自負債家庭的國內需求，都不足以支撐強勁的增長。盡管通脹上升可能會導致韓國央行加息，但韓國政府必須應對中國的經濟增長減速和美國的保護主義，美國政府也可能將所謂的彙率操縱的矛頭對准韓國。

Despite improved forecasts, Taiwanese growth rate for 2017 is estimated at 1.8 percent. Like Hong Kong, it is struggling with economic and political malaise; the former derive from maturation, the latter are largely self-induced. Thanks to growing political uncertainty, investment contraction could follow in due time, especially if friction with China will weigh on trade and investment.

盡管預測有所改善，但台灣2017年的經濟增長率預計也只有爲1.8%。與香港一樣，它也正面臨經濟和政治上的困境;前者源于經濟成熟，後者主要是自我原因導致的。由于政治上的不確定性增加，投資收縮可能會適時出現，特別是如果與中國的摩擦將對貿易和投資造成壓力時。

Today, dragons are steadily aging and slowing, as evidenced by steady and occasionally steep deceleration of growth in each.

如今，四小龍龍正在穩步老齡化和減速，證據是各個小龍的增長速度都很穩定，偶爾也會有急劇減速。

Slowing growth

經濟增長放緩

The four dragons are aging. With demographic transition, birth and death rates are slowing, as evidenced by rise of median age. Among major advanced economies, it is highest in Japan and Germany (47), which are facing population decline. Among the dragons, it is highest in Hong Kong (43), followed by South Korea (41), Taiwan (40) and Singapore (40).

四小龍正在老齡化。隨著人口結構的轉變，出生率和死亡率都在放緩，這一點可以從年齡中位數的增長來證明。在主要發達經濟體中，日本和德國(47)的人口數量都在下降。在四小龍中，香港是排名最高的(43)，其次是韓國(41)，台灣(40)和新加坡(40)。

Worse, average living standards tend to mask broadening income polarization in the four dragons. Among major advanced economies, income inequality, as measured by Gini coefficient, is the highest in the US (45), but significantly lower in Japan (32), France and Germany (less than 30). Among the dragons, it is highest in the financial hubs of Hong Kong (54) and Singapore (46), as opposed to high-tech giants Taiwan (34) and South Korea (30).

更糟糕的是，平均生活水平往往掩蓋了四小龍收入分化的擴大。在主要發達經濟體中，以基尼系數衡量的收入不平等爲：美國最高(45)，但在日本(32)、法國和德國(不到30)基尼指數顯著下降。在四小龍中，作爲金融中心的香港(54)和新加坡(46)基尼指數是最高的，高科技巨頭台灣(34)和韓國(30)的情況則與之相反。

In the long-run, high living standards require solid growth and strong productivity, which usually rely on sustained innovation. Most dragons are driven by technology innovation, as reflected by their R&D per GDP. It is relatively highest in the world in South Korea (4.3%), and in the top league in Singapore (3.2%) and Taiwan (3%), which have bypassed the U.S. and Western Europe. However, Hong Kong (0.7%) is the great laggard.

從長遠來看，高標准的生活水平需要堅實的經濟增長和強勁的生産力，這通常依賴于持續的創新。四小龍中的大多數都是由技術創新驅動的，這反映在他們研發費用在國內生産總值中的占比上。韓國的這一比例在世界上相對最高(4.3%)、新加坡(3.2%)和台灣(3%)也在最高的梯隊中，他們的研發占比也超過了美國和西歐。然而，香港(0.7%)卻是大大的落後。

All four dragons need great structural reforms and inclusive pro-growth policies, including greater productivity, innovation and R&D investments; more dynamic competition and new enterprises; higher retirement ages, accelerated skill-based immigration, drastically reduced policy barriers to female labor participation; and greater efficiency of public spending. A greater stress on human capital also requires more progressive taxation, aggressive measures to reduce income inequality; and adequate job protection legislation.

四小龍都需要巨大的結構改革和包容性的促增長政策，包括更強的生産力、更多的創新和研發投資;更具活力的競爭者和新企業;提高退休年齡，加快技能移民，大幅減少女性勞工參與工作的政策障礙;提高公共支出的效率。更大的人力資本壓力也要求更多的稅收，更積極的措施來減少收入不平等;以及充分的就業保護立法。

Finally, as the dragons’ internal growth engines are slowing, they must aggressively seek greater integration opportunities, especially through greater economic integration regionally and international trading arrangements.

最後，由于四小龍的內部增長引擎正在放緩，它們必須積極尋求更大的整合機會，特別是通過更大程度的區域和國際貿易經濟一體化協定。

In the absence of such changes, all four dragons could face creeping stagnation.

如果沒有這種變化，四小龍都可能面臨緩慢的增長停滯。